List of Active Prediction Markets & Event Trading sites
On This Page
I’ve spent the past week researching the most active prediction market websites and apps to help our team compare them properly. Between AI search tools, Google deep-dives, and even a couple of calls with the brands themselves, I pulled together the most important insights I could find and present them all on this page.
Comparison of 30 Prediction Market Sites in 2026
| Name | Website | Bonus | Launch | iOS | Android | AppStore Ratings | PlayStore Ratings | API |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | https://polymarket.com/ | ❌ | 2020 | ✅ | ✅ | 4.7 | 2.7 | ✅ |
| Kalshi | https://kalshi.com/ | ✅ | 2021 | ✅ | ✅ | 4.7 | 4.5 | ✅ |
| Predictit | https://www.predictit.org/ | ✅ | 2014 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ✅ |
| Manifold | https://manifold.markets/ | ✅ | 2021 | ✅ | ❌ | 4.5 | No App | ✅ |
| Crypto.com | https://web.crypto.com/ | ✅ | 2016 | ✅ | ✅ | 4.7 | 4.4 | ✅ |
| Opinion trade | https://app.opinion.trade/ | ❌ | 2025 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ❌ |
| Hedgehog | https://www.hedgehog.markets/ | ❌ | 2021 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ❌ |
| Fanduel | https://www.fanduel.com/predicts | ✅ | 2024 | ✅ | ✅ | 4.8 | 4.5 | ❌ |
| Futuur | https://futuur.com/ | ❌ | 2021 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ✅ |
| Probable | https://probable.markets/ | ❌ | 2025 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ❌ |
| Augur | https://augur.net/ | ❌ | 2018 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ✅ |
| Underdogfantasy | https://app.underdogfantasy.com/ | ✅ | 2020 | ✅ | ✅ | 4.8 | 4.6 | ❌ |
| Forecastex | https://forecastex.com/markets | ❌ | 2024 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ✅ |
| Predict | https://predict.fun/ | ❌ | 2024 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ✅ |
| Robinhood | https://robinhood.com/ | ❌ | 2024 | ✅ | ✅ | 4.3 | 4.2 | ❌ |
| Sx Bet | https://sx.bet/ | ✅ | 2022 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ✅ |
| Smarkets | https://smarkets.com/ | ✅ | 2010 | ✅ | ✅ | 4.8 | 3.9 | ❌ |
| Limitless Exchange | https://limitless.exchange/ | ❌ | 2025 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ❌ |
| Myriad | https://myriad.markets/markets | ❌ | 2025 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ❌ |
| Seer | https://app.seer.pm/ | ❌ | 2024 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ❌ |
| Rain | https://www.rain.one/pred | ❌ | 2025 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ✅ |
| Alphaarcade | https://www.alphaarcade.com/ | ❌ | 2025 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ❌ |
| Trueo | https://trueo.com/ | ❌ | 2025 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ❌ |
| Punk Coffee | https://punk.coffee/markets | ❌ | 2025 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ❌ |
| Spindash | https://spindash.gg/ | ❌ | 2025 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ❌ |
| Belief Market | https://app.belief.market/ | ❌ | 2025 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ❌ |
| Foliogames | https://foliogames.co/ | ✅ | 2025 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ❌ |
| Precog Market | https://core.precog.market/ | ❌ | 2024 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ❌ |
| Bodegamarket | https://v3.bodegamarket.io/ | ❌ | 2025 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ❌ |
| Azuro | https://azuro.org/ | ❌ | 2025 | ❌ | ❌ | No App | No App | ❌ |
Sports Prediction Markets Live today
Do Prediction Market Sites Offer Welcome Bonuses?
Some do, but most don’t. As of February 2026, we’ve discovered 9 platforms that provide a new-user offer.
Most of the time, the “welcome bonus” looks a lot like what you’d see at a sportsbook: a deposit-match bonus (where your first deposit is awarded with additional “bonus cash”) or a cashback-style offer which unlocks gradually as you deposit and wager. It’s a bit surprising for prediction markets… but it’s definitely becoming more common (and honestly, it’s kind of funny to see them borrow the sportsbook playbook 😄).
That said, these bonuses usually come with fine print conditions: for example, minimum deposit amounts, limited time windows, or requirements on how the bonus can be used or withdrawn. It’s always worth checking the terms before jumping in.
List of Prediction Market Sites With a Welcome Offer
- kalshi.com
- predictit.org
- manifold.markets
- web.crypto.com
- fanduel.com
- app.underdogfantasy.com
- sx.bet
- smarkets.com
- Foliogames.co
Do Prediction Market Sites Offer Better Odds/Prices vs Traditional Sportsbooks?
Prediction market sites can offer better prices than traditional sportsbooks, but it is not guaranteed. There are fundamental differences in how these businesses operate, resulting in a fluctuation in odds depending on the event, brand, and action on every market.
On a sportsbook, the bookmaker sets the odds and builds in a margin (the vig) by shading both sides of the market.
On a prediction market, the “price” is usually set by users trading with each other. You are effectively buying or selling a probability. For example, if “Yes” trades at 0.62, the market is pricing that outcome at about 62% before fees. Because it is closer to an exchange, prices can sometimes be sharper, especially when a lot of people are trading.
When prediction markets can be better value
- High liquidity: lots of traders means tighter spreads and more efficient pricing.
- Competitive markets: popular events often have enough volume that prices can beat a sportsbook line after you account for vig.
- Ability to trade out: you can often exit early by selling your position, which can be useful for risk management.
When sportsbooks can be better
- Low liquidity on prediction markets: the buy price and sell price can be far apart, and that spread is a real cost.
- Fees: prediction markets often charge trading fees, settlement fees, or both. After fees, the “good price” may not be as good.
- Limits and friction: some markets are harder to enter or exit quickly, especially during fast news.
How to compare fairly (simple method)
- Convert sportsbook odds to implied probability.
- Adjust for vig (otherwise the book always looks “worse” because the margin is included).
- Compare that to the prediction market price after fees and after considering the spread.
Practical takeaway
Prediction markets can offer better prices on big, active markets, but on smaller markets the spread and fees can easily wipe out any advantage. The best approach is to treat them like an exchange: good value when liquidity is strong, risky value when liquidity is thin.
Best Prediction Market Site in 2026
If I had to pick one “best” prediction market site for sports in 2026, I’d go with Kalshi.
The main reason is simple: it’s where the crowd is, and in exchange style markets the crowd usually equals better pricing and smoother trading. Kalshi hit over 1 billion dollars in trading volume on Super Bowl Sunday, which tells you a lot about how big its sports style markets have become.
It’s also winning on scale. The Financial Times reported Kalshi’s user base jumped from about 600,000 to around 5.1 million in roughly a year, citing app data, which helps explain why its biggest markets feel so liquid compared to smaller platforms.
And from a “most complete” point of view, Kalshi feels closer to a mainstream sportsbook experience because it’s mobile friendly, runs user-friendly promos, and offers lots of large headline pools across major events.
Polymarket is still a serious contender (especially for broader, internet driven markets), but for a sports focused “best overall” in 2026, Kalshi is the safer pick on liquidity and reach.
Sports Betting & Prediction Market Apps: 2026 Trend
It’s honestly wild to see prediction markets even on the same scoreboard as the “real” sportsbook apps. Kalshi is not just present, it’s leading the pack on momentum. An average of about 57.9k daily downloads puts it way ahead of DraftKings (20.1k), Underdog (19k), PrizePicks (16.8k), and even FanDuel (14.5k). That’s not a niche finance crowd anymore, that’s mass market sports bettor attention.
Even Polymarket showing roughly 9.33k daily downloads is hard to believe in its own way. It’s basically hanging with Fanatics (8.72k) and above brands like Hard Rock Bet (6.15k) and bet365 (5.51k). For a company that’s “not a sportsbook” on paper, that’s a serious signal that users are shopping for alternatives, especially when the UX feels app first and the markets feel like betting.
The funniest part is how the ecosystem is blending. Sportsbooks look more like trading apps, and prediction markets look more like sportsbooks, with big headline pools, promos, and that same dopamine loop around major games. If this keeps going, the fight is not just odds, it’s who owns the sports betting habit on people’s phones.
Video Spotlight: How & Why Did Prediction Markets Get So Popular?
International Regulation of Prediction Market Sites
Here’s a simple 2026 snapshot of 40 countries where English is an official first/second language, using 3 buckets:
- Legal / Regulated Route Exists (clear path to operate legally)
- Restricted / Effectively Forbidden (explicit blocks/regulator action against prediction market style sites)
- Licensed-Only / Tolerated (can be legal if licensed under gambling laws; otherwise not)
Legal / Regulated Route Exists
- United States (regulated “event contracts” exist, but some sports contracts are contested state-by-state)
- United Kingdom (treated as gambling if offered to GB users; legal if appropriately licensed)
Restricted / Effectively Forbidden
- Australia (regulator action + ISP blocks against Polymarket-style prediction markets)
- Singapore (blocked as illegal gambling)
- Canada (not broadly permitted for retail crypto-style “event contracts”; regulators have treated them as illegal in major provinces)
- Netherlands (Polymarket)
- France
- Belgium
- Germany
- Italy
- Poland
Licensed-Only / Tolerated
In these countries, prediction markets are generally treated like gambling/betting (or sit in a grey area), meaning: legal only with the right local licence, and many “global crypto prediction markets” will geoblock or operate at risk.
- Ireland
- Mauritius
- Tanzania
- Rwanda
- Zambia
- New Zealand
- India
- Pakistan
- Bangladesh
- Sri Lanka
- Nepal
- Philippines
- Malaysia
- South Africa
- Nigeria
- Ghana
- Kenya
- Uganda
- Zimbabwe
- Botswana
- Namibia
- Malawi
- Cameroon
- Liberia
- Sierra Leone
- The Gambia
- Jamaica
- Trinidad and Tobago
- Barbados
- The Bahamas
- Belize
- Guyana
- Malta
- Cyprus
- Israel
Useful Resources I Used to Build This Page
We often forget to say thank you. While researching and writing this guide, I came across a few sources that were genuinely helpful for understanding how prediction markets work, how the main platforms compare, and why they’re suddenly competing for attention with traditional sportsbook apps. If you want to dig deeper, here are the resources I used most (and recommend as a starting point):
Video: Modern Gambling & the Rise of Prediction Markets…
Website: Defillama
Reddit trend comparison of five prediction market
Reddit prediction markets
Igaming article
Frequently Asked Questions about Prediction Markets
What are prediction markets?
Prediction Markets are platforms where people trade on what they think will happen in the real world. Instead of “betting” like a sportsbook, you’re basically buying and selling positions on a yes/no outcome, like “Will Team A win?” or “Will X happen before a certain date?”
I like to think of it as a crowd-powered forecast: the more people trade, the more the price reflects what the market believes is most likely.
Are prediction market sites legal in the US?
In the US, prediction markets are legal, but with a big asterisk.
If a platform is operating under the federal commodities framework (the CFTC and the Commodity Exchange Act), then it can be legal nationwide as a regulated “event contracts” marketplace. For example, Kalshi is officially designated by the CFTC as a regulated contract market.
Where it gets messy is with sports and certain “real-world events.” A growing number of states argue that some sports-related event contracts look like sports betting and should require a state gaming license. That’s why you’re seeing lawsuits and even state-level bans or restrictions, like the Massachusetts ruling against Kalshi’s sports contracts unless it gets licensed.
Also, not every prediction market is treated the same. The CFTC has taken action against unregistered platforms in the past (for example, the 2022 order against Polymarket for offering event-based binary options without proper registration).
My practical takeaway right now: prediction markets are “legal” in the US when they are properly structured and regulated, but availability can still change by platform, by contract type (especially sports), and sometimes by state due to ongoing legal fights.
What is “closing line value” (CLV) in prediction markets?
Closing line value (CLV) in prediction markets is how you check if you got a better price than the market’s final price.
If you bought “Yes” at 0.55 and the market later closes around 0.65, you have positive CLV because you entered at a cheaper price (55%) than where the market ended (65%).
My simple rule: CLV tells you whether you’re beating the market over time, even if a single result wins or loses.
How do prices convert to probabilities?
On most prediction markets, the price is basically the probability. If a “Yes” share trades at 0.62 (or $0.62), the market is implying about a 62% chance the event happens. Here’s the formula:
Probability (%) = Price × 100
Quick examples:
0.10 = 10%
0.50 = 50%
0.78 = 78%
Small caveat: the exact implied probability can be slightly off once you include fees and the buy/sell spread, but as a simple rule, price equals probability.
What fees do prediction markets charge (trading fee, spread, settlement fee)?
Prediction markets usually charge fees in three main ways:
Trading fee
A small percentage (or fixed fee) when you buy or sell, or when your order gets matched. Think of it like an exchange commission.
Spread
This is the hidden cost. You’ll often see a difference between the buy price and the sell price. On low-liquidity markets that spread can be wide, and it can cost more than any official fee.
Settlement fee
Some platforms take a fee when the market resolves and you cash out winning shares (or when you redeem/withdraw).
Quick rule I use: on big, liquid markets the spread is usually small and fees matter most; on small markets the spread is often the real killer.
Are sports prediction markets better or worse than sportsbooks?
They’re not the same product, so “better or worse” is the wrong frame. Sportsbooks are built for betting: fixed odds, promos, simple slips, and the book takes the other side (with vig baked in). Prediction markets are built for trading: you’re buying and selling a price that moves, you can enter and exit like an exchange, and your real costs are fees plus the buy/sell spread.
So instead of comparing, I’d put it like this:
Use a sportsbook if you want the classic experience: quick bets, lots of markets, parlay features, and predictable odds format.
Use a prediction market if you like the trading angle: trying to get a better entry, selling early, reacting to news, and taking advantage of market moves when liquidity is strong.
